By Michael Brenner

Senior Fellow, the Center for Transatlantic Relations; Professor of International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh.

Getting Real: An ISIL Strategy

Posted: 12/14/2015 12:46 pm EST Updated: 12/14/2015 12:59 pm EST.  (Published in The World Post, December 17, 2015.)

Islamic State Flag

Any serious attempt to formulate a strategy for addressing the multifaceted crisis we confront in the Middle East should begin with acknowledging some unpleasant facts of life. The first is that neither willpower nor faith alone will alter the incontrovertible realities of this daunting situation.

DEFEATING ISIL WILL REQUIRE A RADICAL STRATEGIC SHIFT

 By Ronald T. Fox

In various Phronesis posts I have been highly critical of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, and particularly of our disastrous war on terrorism, which has not only failed to stem terrorism, but, as I argued, has contributed to its growth, reach and boldness.  I have been especially critical of the Washington foreign policy elite who have proven themselves time and time again to be plagued by ignorance, fanciful thinking and tunnel vision when it comes to the Middle East.  The deference of the American public to the pronouncements and confident assurances of the foreign policy establishment, despite their long history of being wrong, boggles the mind.  Chalk up the American people as being complicit in our failed policies.    

As a number of readers have pointed out, I've been mute on what I think should be done to resolve the complex Islamic extremist mess we now face.  I have not offered a comprehensive strategy because I don’t feel I have sufficient knowledge of the dynamic forces at play in the region to provide an informed recommendation.  The conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya and throughout the wider Middle East are extremely complex, featuring numerous participants with conflicting political and military agendas and strategies.  Even so-called friends aren’t on the same page.  The complexities defy the simplistic solutions offered by pandering politicians who rely on uninformed and gullible Americans to buy into add-water-and-stir solutions. These complexities, along with the fact that ISIS and other extremists already have an extensive presence in several countries outside of the Middle East, means that Islamist terrorism is an ongoing problem that can, at best, be managed, not “defeated.”

Further reading about the various challenges posed by jihadi extremists has helped me get a better fix on the complexities of the various conflicts.  I realize now that my previous posts left a lot out, particularly in regard to President Obama and his senior foreign policy team's responsibility  for ISIS’ (or ISIL's) growth and success and the mushrooming jihadist danger.  While it’s undeniable that President George Bush’s ill-conceived invasion of Iraq and his administration’s blundering policies in its aftermath paved the way for the emergence of ISIS, the terrorist group would not have reached its present heights without Obama's delusional policies.  As failed as his policies have been toward Syria and Iraq, he appears inescapably wedded to them.    

REPUBLICANS ARE STILL IN ‘DENIAL MODE’ OVER DONALD TRUMP

Donald Trump has evolved from a joke, to a curiosity candidate, a fire-starting contender, to a front-runner for the Republican nomination for president.  Love him or hate him, dismiss him as a flash in the pan, there is no denying Trump has had an enormous impact on not just the tone of the campaign, but also policy positions being embraced by the GOP contenders. Washington Post opinion writer Michael Gerson aptly captured the Trump phenomenon in the following November 23 op/ed. I'm posting it as a guest commentary.

Ronald Fox

NOVEMBER 2015 BONEHEAD ABSURDITY OF THE MONTH

1. Rush Limbaugh. Leave it to Mr. Bombastic to link the discovery of water on Mars to his anti-climate science agenda. In true Limbaughian bombast, he said on this radio show:
 
“What's the big deal about flowing water on Mars?” . . . “You know what, when they start selling iPhones on Mars, that's when it'll matter to me.”
 
Limbaugh said he knew what they would do with the news:
 
“. . . look at the temperature data, that has been reported by NASA, has been made up, it's fraudulent for however many years, there isn't any warming, there hasn't been for 18.5 years. And yet, they're lying about it. They're just making up the amount of ice in the North and South Poles, they're making up the temperatures, they're lying and making up false charts and so forth. So what's to stop them from making up something that happened on Mars that will help advance their left-wing agenda on this planet?”
 
This vile, hate-filled blowhard has probably caused more harm to a warm and friendly America than any other individual. It’s sad that so many people still listen to him.
 

SCORCHED EARTH: IMAGES OF KOBANI, SYRIA

by Ronald T. Fox


In my previous post on Islamophobia Plays Into the Hands of Islamist, I criticized our "scorched-earth" strategy, which embraces the idea that liberating towns from ISIS control requires their near total destruction. Below are four images that illustrate my point.  To be sure, the vast destruction of Kobani shown below was not solely a product of allied bombing, but it is reportedly the major factor. Many are complicit in scorching Syria's earth; this is the saddest part of the unfolding human tragedy..

ISLAMOPHOBIA IS PLAYING INTO THE HANDS OF ISLAMIST EXTREMISTS

by Ronald T. Fox

Hostility to immigrants and refugees has become a defining characteristic of American politics. While Republicans have almost unanimously embraced it, particularly against people from the Middle East, many Democrats have also jumped on the anti-immigrant, anti-refugee bandwagon. I thought Donald Trump established a new low when he characterizes immigrants from Mexico as criminals and rapists and called for a wall to be built along the Mexican border, but using the Paris attacks to scapegoat some of the world’s most desperate and vulnerable people to score political points is demagoguery at its worst. By adding Islamophobia to their repertoire of bigotry, Republicans are playing into the hands of Islamist extremists.

CONNECTING THE DOTS BETWEEN FOOTBALL AND TERRORISM

          by Charles Snow


Penn State University will increase security at Beaver Stadium for this Saturday's football game with Michigan as well as at a three-band concert in the Bryce Jordan Center the night before. Enhanced security measures are being taken because of the recent terrorist attacks in Paris. It appears that terrorists can claim another (micro) victory in the U.S. because Penn State has decided to increase security and because many football and music fans have been forced to calculate how risky their attendance at these events will be.

I believe the vast majority of Americans, myself included, would like to see terrorism in the world reduced if not eliminated. Wouldn't it be nice to go to a football game or a music concert without wondering if somebody is planning an attack that will create fear and mayhem -- regardless of how small that probability is? The difficult overall question, of course, is how the U.S. should go about fighting terrorism around the world.